Stock market returns between 2021 and 2023
If you invested $200000 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2021, you would have about $265,626.02 at the end of 2023, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 32.81%, or 9.92% per year.
This lump-sum investment beats inflation during this period for an inflation-adjusted return of about 18.11% cumulatively, or 5.70% per year.
If you used dollar-cost averaging (monthly) instead of a lump-sum investment, you'd have $238,455.28.
The graph below shows the performance of $200000 over time if invested in an S&P 500 index fund. The returns assume that all dividends are automatically reinvested.
This chart shows the rate of gains and loss by month, including dividends:
Adjusting stock market return for inflation
The nominal return on investment of $200000 is $65,626.02, or 32.81%. This means by 2023 you would have $265,626.02 in your pocket.
However, it's important to take into account the effect of inflation when considering an investment and especially a long-term investment. You can convert S&P returns to their real (inflation-adjusted) value using an inflation calculation based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In the case of the returns described above, the CPI in 2021 was 270.970 and the CPI in 2023 was 304.702.
The ratio between these CPIs describes how relative buying power of a dollar has changed over 2 years.
Adjusted for inflation, the $265,626.02 nominal end value of the original $200000 investment would have a real return of roughly $36,219.94 in 2021 dollars. This means the inflation-adjusted return is 18.11% as opposed to the original 32.81%.
For more information on inflation, see our U.S. inflation calculator for 2021.
Full monthly data
The table below shows the full dataset pertaining to a $200000 investment, including gains and losses over the 36-month period between 2021 and 2023.
Note that data shown is the monthly average closing price. Returns include dividends.
Remember, returns are based on the average closing price across the entire month. Some losses are offset by dividend returns.
Dollar-cost averaging
Dollar-cost averaging is an alternative to investing the full lump-sum of $200,000.00 up-front. Instead, the capital is invested over a period of time.
Consider a strategy in which $200,000.00 was invested in the S&P 500 over a period of no more than 24 months beginning in 2021. This would result in a final amount of $238,455.28, including dividend reinvestments. In this particular case, dollar-cost average returns are less than the returns of a lump-sum investment (which ends with $265,626.02).
Data Sources
The information on this page is derived from Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance and the accompanying dataset, as well as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly CPI logs.
Note that S&P index value for the current quarter is based on a moving average of closing prices, per Robert Shiller's methodology. The inflation data used is based on annual CPI averages.
in2013dollars.com is a reference website maintained by the Official Data Foundation.
| Start Value Average monthly close | $3,793.75 |
| End Value Average monthly close | $3,960.66 |
| Change in price | +4.40% +2.18% / yr |
| Change incl. dividends | +32.81% +9.92% / yr |
| Change incl. dividends, inflation-adjusted | +18.11% +5.70% / yr |
| Final amount, nominal ($200000 base) | $265,626.02 |
| Final amount, inflation-adjusted ($200000 base) | $236,219.94 |